After 3 months of training camp and regular season and another three weeks of playoffs, we finally have only two teams standing. And if you ask many of the so-called experts, the majority would have gotten it right this time in terms of picking which two teams would be in the Finals. I clearly believe that the best two teams are playing for the National Title in Springfield and Detroit. In my mind, they mirror one another. The two teams split in the regular season. Chandler Dawes was healthy in one game, then injuried his ankle in the nine point loss to Detroit in late April.
These are the best two defensive teams in the AAU in my opinion, when formulating points allowed, defensive field goal percentage, defensive 3-point field goal percentage and blocked shots. They both follow their coach's system to a T, and you rarely see miscues or missed assignments on defense.
Look for bigmen to aggressively show hard on shooters coming off screens. Yet they will also force you baseline into the four or five when you get the ball on the side and a screen is coming to free you. They are contiunally changing coverages on the defensive end to confuse their opponents. An example is both Springfield and Detroit may go under a screen at the top against the point guards, but then trap in the fourth quarter to get the ball stopped.
Both can run when given the opportunity, as Springfield proved in the Phoenix series. Springfield can play almost any style of offense you want, but they'll always make sure Chandler Dawes gets his touches early and often, especially in the fourth quarter.
Both have great strengths and not many weaknesses. When the Big Three of Dawes, Conor McCaffrey, and Paul Hammond plays well, Springfield doesn't lose. Springfield has done a tremendous job taking away the strengths of their opponents. The 3-point defense in the postseason has been tremendous.
Detroit has shown time and time again how poised and collected it is in the last few possessions when it really counts, as Game 7 against Miami proved. No one is mentally tougher. Detroit has done this all postseason. Both would have been the top seeds if Dawes and Coach Charles Brown had not missed to many contests due to injury and illness.
Fans and media may not give Detroit the credit it deserves. They just don't have marquee stars. But the respect they have around the league by coaches and players alike are at an all-time high. They are a pain to play against since they take you out of your offense with their pressure. Springfield will see an unselfish, balanced scoring team, and five starters that can all hurt them.
Point guard
Springfield: McCaffrey sets the tone for the entire team. When he gets into the lane and attacks on offense, and knocks down the open shots when Dawes get doubled or his defender goes down below the screen roll action, Springfield looks good. He has averaged over 24 points in the postseason. He did a very good job forcing the issue offensively against Phoenix, running Amari Thompson off screen after screen. He loved the up-tempo style the Phoenix series provided, but he can also dial it down to the slower-paced Detroit game plan. When he lets the game come to him, attacking early in the shot clock and playing off Dawes, Conor is at his best.
Detroit: Darik Queen is averaging 18 points a game this postseason and is usually the heart and soul when Detroit needs big hoops in the fourth quarter. He's also capable of hitting 20 in one quarter. Will Queen attempt to post up McCaffrey in the block? He will have to be leery of Chandler and Charlie Dawes coming over to help from the weak side. Don't foul Queen when the game is on the line. He is one of the best clutch free-throw shooters, and proved it again in Game 7 against Miami.
Advantage: Even: This will be one of the best matchups of the series.
Off guard:
Springfield: Jamison Jones III, though listed on the depth chart as a small forward, will likely get the task of stopping the opponent's best swingman. This All-Defense first team member now will go back and forth from chasing Karter Knox off multiple screens to defending the post-up isolations of Tyrone Taylor. Jamison hasn't been asked to score much in these playoffs, but that isn't his forte. Jones III had Asa Newell and Victorious Miller fighting with him as much as playing. He also frustrated all of the Phoenix wings, who all played under their normal games. By having an imposing front line behind him, Jones is free to guard these types of players as if it was a box-and-one defense. He faces, guards them and always stays attached to them if they have the ball of not.
Detroit: Knox kept Detroit's heads and confidence up by knocking down six straight shots at the end of the first quarter in Game 7 after Miami had jumped out on top. Karter made 8 of 10 shots in the first half and finished with 22 points. Miami tried to take away the tigh curl off the pin-down screen so Kartner couldn't recieve the pass near the elbow area. So all Karter had to due was fade to the corner and hit every shot. His improved passing has helped make Detroit a very unselfish team. But he will get the most attempts from the field and the free-throw line. Another challenge for the Jones/Hammond combination.
Advantage: Detroit, but Jones III will make it tough on him.
Small Forward
Springfield: Hammond just keeps coming up with big play after big play. When things break down or Springfield has a dry spell, Paul usually hits a shot by creating contact or spinning free for a crazy lay-in. The player who coach Will Jenkins calls his "Wild Card" is always attacking at both ends. He will try to use his strength against Knox and take Taylor out on the perimeter before penetrating. All Paul does is win and he's gotten better before our eyes.
Detroit: Taylor will have the task of keeping Hammond in front of him. His length will no doubt come into play as it did against Miami early in that series. Tyrone will attempt to take away his layups and free throws and make him a jump shooter. Offensively, he will get his chance to challenge the big front line of Springfield with his post ups, but can also fade out to the 3-point line as the ball moves. Like Hammond, Taylor is as improved as anyone and never quits on any play.
Advantage: Springfield.
Power forward
Springfield: Chandler Dawes has gotten better with each series as his ankles recover from grade 2 level sprains. The two-time MVP and AAU National Champ is playing like a star. He averaged 34 points and 16 rebounds against Phoenix, and scored 30 points in 4 games of the series, including a 40 and 42 point performance. Springfield capitalize with Chandler's decision making when his teammates feed the post. He does the little things that win games like being able to handle the ball, pass, run the floor to finish with either hand, use the short bank shot outside of either block, or just make jump shots. Even his free-throw shooting is much improved outside of the one game that Phoenix won. His defense is steller both on and off the ball. When he gets double-teamed in the post, he will find the open man. Chandler doesn't care if he scores or not, he just wants to win, which is why he is loved by Springfield.
Detroit: Detroit is 8-0 in the postseason when Richard Wallace scores 20 or more points in a game. And I don't know if I have ever seen Richard play better when it was time to step up at the end of a game in a playoff setting. Knocking down two free throws and adding the rebound basket off a Taylor miss in Game 7 set Detroit up to advance against Miami. Wallace will definitely try to take Chandler Dawes away from the basket by stretching the defense with his shooting ability. With that said, Detroit plays better when Richard doesn't drift out too much and get into the post looking for his shot. This series he will have a great defender on him. Look for Wallace to show Dawes different looks by fronting him or getting help from the three/four or playing behind to alter his shot with the double team coming.
Advantage: You just can't deny possibly the best player right now. Springfield gets the edge.
Center
Springfield: Charlie Dawes has stepped his game up after struggling with knee injuries for the past 4 seasons. His huge wingspan gives Springfield another big body to control the boards, where they excel. Charlie has been quick at changing defensive styles, he is more than likely the 2nd best defender in the league at his postion. His ability to rotate quickly into postion to stop penetration or to cover Chandler's man if Chandler steps out to control the screen roll. He has also shown an ability to get his points early for Springfield. Whether it is from post-ups, offensive rebounds, or just flashing into open areas in the paint. Charlie has been able to finish. This takes the pressure off the "Big 3" to score.
Detroit: Antonio Parker is going to love his matchup with Charlie Dawes. This is not a knock on Charlie, it is just a compliment to the talent of Mikey Williams. In the Miami series, Antonio had to push Williams out of the lane before each catch, then put as much pressure on him with a low base and still get his hands up to alter each shot. This is difficult to do. Antonio will now be able to play his normal game, whether it is very good defense on the ball, or his great defense off the ball. Any penetration by Springfield will be met by Parker coming over to help. When Antonio is getting double-digit points to go with his double-digit rebounds, Detroit is hard to beat.
Advantage: Detroit
Bench
Springfield: Springfield's depth has been a real plus for them. Clarence Davis and Jace Easley come off the bench, but are in the lineup at the end of games. That's when it counts. Davis has been knocking down shots, rebounding in traffic and defending above the norm. Easley has been a big shotmaker and an off-guard to throw out there on the floor, and his chemistry with McCaffrey is truely unmatched. Jake Pollen has been productive when coming in for short spurts, playing good defense and orchestrating the offense when McCaffrey takes the occasional break, which has been less and less as the playoffs have advanced.
Detroit: Detroit went out and retreived Elden Campbell to help with Mikey Williams, and it gave them a massive boost. Coach Brown is using Thomas Hunter to harass the other teams guards and will be asked to do the same on McCaffrey. Allen Robinson has played great off the bench and will be extra motivated in this series attempting to get his first National Title. He has been making the jumpshot this postseason. Carlos Adams will be asked to counter the speed of McCaffrey as well. He gets Detroit going when they start out slow.
Advantage: Springfield
Coaching
Springfield: The players will be back to playing actual games after eight days off, so Jenkins will stop putting in new plays. Will Jenkins has done an excellent job of taking away the strengths of opponents. Against Seattle and Phoenix, they played excellent perimeter defense. Against Phoenix, Springfield's gameplan was to take away the wings offense. They did. And they changed their offensive philosophy in running right back at Phoenix while never letting their defense waver. He also knows when to go to Chandler Dawes, which is often.
Detroit: Charles Brown is now 7-3 in Game 7's. He and Jenkins are great friends with really no secrets on the court. They have meeting to discuss philosophy all of the time. But Brown has done a great job of selling the unselfish approach to his team and has them poised to win at the end of games by having his players knowing exactly what is expected of them. They play hard, which is all anyone can ask. Both teams believe in their coaches once the ball is thrown up, and that is half the battle in the AAU.
Advantage: Even
Prediction
Even though these two teams are very even in most of the important categories. I feel the intangibles will make the difference in this series. The eight days off will help Springfield. Plus, in my mind, the extra home game gives Springfield an incredible advantage due to the 2-3-2 format used in the finals. It is so hard for the home team in the middle three games to win all three, although I do realize Detroit did this last year by winning Games 3, 4, and 5 over Compton. But I think Springfield will win one game in Detroit. With Springfield's depth and overall speed and quickness, I'm going away from picking Detroit for the first time. I like Springfield to win a hard-fought, grind-it-out series in seven games. Detroit's experience and refusal to lose will extend this series out, but Springfield should prevail if no serious injuries occur.